When President Donald Trump mobilized a health squad to advise him and the nation on the seriousness of the coronavirus epidemic he was given projections of death vastly exceeding the number of Americans who died in the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic. Initially these numbers were 2.2 million Americans. These later were reduced to 240,000. The latest IHME model, just out, has it at nearly 82,000 by August 1, 2020.
Now let’s be clear! All these numbers are unacceptable and involve real people: fathers, mothers grandparents and occasionally a child but always someone loved. Life matters. Any death is serious, of course, but this is only 20,000 more than death from the flu season of 2017-2018.
Why does this matter? Because it was these extreme projections of 2.2 million that were used as cause to shut down the economy and increase our indebtedness by perhaps $4 trillion dollars—an indebtedness more than all wars combined in American history.
What also concerns me is that most Democratic media outlets fed these panic inducing death counts from day one, even before evidence confirmed them. They now seem almost disappointed 1) with these new lower numbers, 2) that a drug used to treat malaria, hydroxy-chloroquine, is able to treat also the coronavirus, and 3) that this crisis is going to go away far too early. Democrats still can not give Trump a win on managing this crisis. They loaded Congress’s 2 trillion dollar relief bill with pork that had nothing to do with the virus itself, but did prolong passage of the bill designed to help millions of Americans desperately needing it.
My biggest concern, however, remains the weaponization of death projections seemingly to keep hysteria alive and well—and for what possible purpose? Who benefits from this hysteria? The media in modern history have never focused on the body count of flus that take thousands each year.
I am writing this on April 8, using the newly released death projections for April. By the time newspapers print this column on April 10 the projected death rate will be 22,239. By the time LibertyUnderFire subscribers read this April 14, deaths are projected to be 34,068. One week thereafter, April 17, it will be 43,279. By April 21 they are to be 54,857 By April 24, they are to be 62,089 and by April 28, they will be 68,938. Projections to Aug 1st will be 81,766 dead Americans. Deaths per day are to peak April 16 at 3,130 (IHME, COVID-19 Projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020, United States of America view at https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america). Readers can compare these numbers against reality as we approach these dates.
Still, the reduction of death by the panicked media is, for the rest of us, manna from heaven compared to the projections just 10 days before of 2.2 million dead Americans. The latest projected death in the United States of 82,000 in three months is unlikely to be reached. It might turn out to be even less than the 61,000 who died of influenza in the 2017-2018 season. Most of us may never know anyone who actually died from it. Body count of the deceased did not lead the news every night causing us to hunker in our homes wondering if we would be next.
So here are the facts that are underreported or ignored by the panicked press The odds of you getting this virus are much smaller than the hype, “based on the population tested, … rates can vary from, at most, eight-tenths of a percent in New York City to two-one-hundredths of a percent in Phoenix.” The few out of 330 million Americans that actually get this virus at least 98% will recover from it. There are models showing 50% of the population may have already had it, never knew they had it, and recovered (“An Advantaged Disease, Indeed.” By William J. Bennett & Seth Leibsohn, April 06, 2020). With these facts accurately reported it is unlikely that we would have shut down the economy.
They did not tell us of the 34,000 who died of influenza in last year’s 2018-2019 flu season, nor that we lose PER MONTH “about 54,000 Americans to heart disease; 50,000 to cancer; 14,000 to asthma, bronchitis, and emphysema; 12,000 to stroke; 10,000 to Alzheimer’s; 7,000 to diabetes; 5,600 to drug overdoses; and 4,700 to influenza and pneumonia.” These deaths give us over 157,000 deaths PER MONTH” and no-one shuts down the economy or cries out for a $2 Trillion stimulus package. Apparently only the coronavirus, amplified by the Democratic press, alerts the panic response.
Again all life matters and these too are horrifying unacceptable death numbers involving those we love. The media have no right to drive a panic without accurate, proportional (including the omissions noted above), supporting evidence that potentially could damage the economy beyond repair for years.
One piece of knowledge that would have helped reduce the media hysteria for young people is that only 7% of those who got it were under 50 years of age. We knew this early on. Allow them to return to work ASAP. Perhaps a better response to this epidemic would have been rather than shut down the economy, quarantine those over 65 and tell those younger not to visit them for a time.
Dr. Harold Pease is a syndicated columnist and an expert on the United States Constitution. He has dedicated his career to studying the writings of the Founding Fathers and applying that knowledge to current events. He taught history and political science from this perspective for over 30 years at Taft College. Newspapers have permission to publish this column. To read more of his weekly articles, please visit www.LibertyUnderFire.org.
I hope the site administration will allow me to post the view of David Icke. Conspiracy Advocate for 30 years (???) on the CoronaVirus 19 Pandemic and the formation of a New World Order …, The link to such commentary it is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMTZu6_TjU8&feature=emb_logo
The New World Order per David Icke (I note that I am not fully aware of his education or background at this moment …) is such where Wealth, Political, Technology Development (as well as Information ) is in the hands of a small percentage of the World population. Most people will not derive much economic benefit from such world Order !!!
David Icke speculates that the Pandemic is used as an Instrument to accelerate the formation of such World Order, including retired senior citizens or the aging segment of the population.
It is also most interesting to listen to famous novelist and ex M16 Brirish Intelligence Officer John Le Carre concerning the reasons for the fall of Democracy and Humanitarian values in Western Democracies . The link is here :
NPR Interview
December 28, 2017 3:00 PM ET
https://www.npr.org/2017/12/28/572625559/novelist-john-le-carr-reflects-on-his-own-legacy-of-spying
I have highlighted what I consider the most relevant comments on the interview and post them here:
GROSS: John le Carre, why did you write about a spy forced to face his responsibility for two deaths decades ago?
LE CARRE: I think because, back then, we had a clear philosophy which we thought we were protecting. And it was a notion of the West. It was a notion of individual freedom, of inclusiveness, of tolerance – all of that we called anti-communism. That was really a broad brush because there were many decent people who lived in communist territories who weren’t as bad as one might suppose. But now, today, this present time in which these matters are being reconsidered in my novel, we seem to have no direction.
We seem to be joined by nothing very much except fear and bewilderment about what the future holds. We have no coherent ideology in the West, and we used to believe in the great American example. I think that’s recently been profoundly undermined for us. We’re alone. Two of my most important characters in the story, Peter Guillam, the narrator, and George Smiley, who is Guillam’s master, if you like, both of them turn out to be semi-Europeans. I think my concern as I started writing the book in this extraordinary atmosphere in which we presently live was somehow implicitly to make a case for Europe, which has now become an endangered species
GROSS: You know, in the reading that you did, your character refers to, you know, being expected or having to suppress human feelings to be a spy. And he later, you know, thinks that George Smiley – your most famous character who recruited your narrator – suppressed the humanity in him. Do you feel like when you were working for British intelligence that you had to suppress human feelings or suppress your humanity?
LE CARRE: Well, of course, in any corporate or institutional situation, people who are employed by those corporations have to repress their feelings in one way or another. We, during the Cold War, were aware of suppressing our human instincts in some directions but for a cause – a great cause, as we thought. And it seemed expedient that a few should suffer for the benefit of the many.
At the moment, as the present is described in the novel, we are mysteriously unfocused, still looking for some kind of identity, really, ever since the end of the Cold War. There was no Marshall Plan. There was no great visionary or leader who told us how the world should be reshaped. There was drift. And a lot of carpetbaggers went and picked at the Soviet carcass. And, really, it was like a long after-lunch sleep of capitalism. And that’s really what we’ve drifted into without a design of the new world
GROSS: I want to get back to that in a couple of minutes. But first, I want to ask you, because you’ve written so many novels set during the Cold War – you met two heads of the KGB. You were in Russia twice – once during the Soviet era, Communist era and then once in 1993, when the oligarchs and the criminals had kind of taken over. And you wrote about the Cold War – nothing, absolutely nothing is what it seems. Everyone has a second motive, if not a third.
I’m wondering how that applies to trying to figure out what’s happening now in terms of possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia and Russia’s interference in the U.S. election and in other elections, as well. You know, the whole idea is like, nothing is what it seems. Do you think that’s still the case? And if so, like, what do you – how are you trying to understand what Russia has been up to?
LE CARRE: A whole bunch of questions in one.
GROSS: I know. That’s really terrible (laughter). I think I committed an interviewer sin just now.
LE CARRE: Let’s look, first of all, at the operation influence, if you like, and how that’s exerted, what we suspect the Russians are doing, not only in the United States, what they did in Britain for the referendum, maybe in Britain for the election. They certainly interfered in Macron’s election in France. So who are these forces? And what is really spooky, I think, and profoundly disturbing is they come from the West as well as the East – that there are oligarchs in the West who are so far to the right that they make a kind of natural cause with those on the other side of the world. Both of them have in common a great contempt for the ordinary conduct of democracy.
John Le Carre states his Belief that “The American Dream is no more ….”Europe is an endangered Species ?????
His Belief that , values of Democracy and Humanity were not protected or a plan to preserve such values in USA and Europe never existed after the Cold War.
These Democracies are being threatened from within by extremely right wing powers, but also by outside poweres in the Esat (Russia, Islamic Fundamentalists or China, John Le Carre does not explicitly states in the interview but this is just a good guess !!!).
From Feb to mid March the rate of infection was growing exponentially. That means it was doubling every 3 to 4 days. By taking the extreme measures of statewide shutdowns it plateaued at about 25,000 new cases per day. Without such action the doubling would have continued. 30 days of doubling every 3.5 days is about 8 doublings. Take a minute to think about that. 25k, 50k, 100k, 200k, 400k, 800k, 1.6M, 3.2M, then 6,400,000 new cases PER DAY in one month. That is why we are doing this. One of the problems with doing the right thing during a pandemic is that it appears we overreacted to people who don’t understand the math.